$CEG
Constellation Energy · The nuclear backbone of the AI power crunch
The cleanest play on the AI power bottleneck
The market has moved through the AI trade in layers. First came the chips. Then optical. Now the conversation has shifted to the bottleneck that matters most: power. Every hyperscaler signing data center commitments is running into the same wall. There is not enough generation. There is not enough grid. And nuclear baseload is the most coveted electron in the country.
Constellation owns that electron. After closing the $26.6 billion Calpine acquisition in January, CEG is now the largest private power producer in the world, running roughly 55 gigawatts of generation and supplying about 10% of all US clean energy. It is the largest US nuclear operator. It is the counterparty on the most iconic AI power deal of the cycle: the Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart for Microsoft.
The fundamentals just got reset higher. Q1 reported May 11 with adjusted EPS of $2.74 versus $2.61 expected and revenue of $11.12 billion, beating by 23.56%. Management reaffirmed full year 2026 guidance of $11 to $12 EPS, roughly 23% growth at the midpoint. Through 2029, base EPS is projected to grow at a 20% annualized rate. Free cash flow steps from $8.4 billion in 2026 and 2027 to $11.5 to $13 billion by 2028 and 2029.
And here is the entry. The stock peaked at $412.70 last fall and has pulled back 35% to $267.20 on disappointment over conservative 2026 guidance and a Crane restart timing delay. The fundamentals are stronger than the chart. 17 of 18 analysts rate the stock Buy with an average price target of $367.48 (range $272 to $441). That is roughly 37% upside to the average, more than 65% to the high. And next earnings are not until July 30. No binary risk into the print.
The numbers that matter
The two paths from here
$360 to $441 over the next 60 to 90 days
Power scarcity narrative reasserts. New hyperscaler PPA announcements land. Crane restart timing firms. Calpine synergies emerge in Q2 numbers. The market remembers that CEG is a contracted, low carbon generation business attached to the most durable demand story of the decade. Recent analyst PTs from Barclays, BMO, TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and Scotiabank all cluster between $350 and $441.
Buy thesis: the pullback is a gift. The fundamentals are accelerating.
Retest to $243 52 week low
PJM regulatory pressure intensifies. FERC scrutiny of colocation deals creates overhang. Macro de-risking on Iran or oil resumes. Crane restart delays extend further. Conservative 2026 guidance gets re-tested by Q2 print.
Risk to thesis: $258 fails and we step aside for the $243 retest or a flat reset.
$258 is the line in the sand
Hold $258 and the path to $300 reopens. Break $300 with conviction and the analyst target zone of $360 plus is in play. Lose $258 and we step aside for a cleaner re-entry near $243. Members get the exact strike, expiration, entry zone, and stop-loss in the alert.
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