Marvell closed near $287 in early October. On Friday it closed at $141.20. Most of that damage came in a few sessions: the all-stock Lumentum deal on November 2 came on a 12.7 percent down day, and Thursday’s chip selloff took it to a $133.55 close.

Friday it bounced. My view is simple: I think MRVL works back into the $150s to $160s by the end of 2026. I’m not trying to call the exact bottom. I’m trying to put on a position where I know my worst case before I click buy.

Why a spread, not plain calls

With implied volatility near 80 percent, calls are expensive. The December 150 call alone cost about $12.10 at Friday’s mid, which means the stock needs to get to roughly $162 by December 18 just to break even. That doesn’t fit a $150 to $160 view.

So I’m buying the Dec 18 145 call and selling the Dec 18 160 call. Selling the 160 pays for much of the 145, and since my target is 160, I don’t need upside past it.

The runway, four stops

• Stop · $133.55
  The line in the sand
  A daily close below Thursday’s $133.55 close means the low didn’t hold. I close the spread rather than wait.
• Entry · ~$141
  Where I start
  Around Friday’s $141.20 close, after the first bounce off the low.
• Breakeven · ~$150.70
  Paid for
  About 6.7 percent above Friday’s close. Above here at expiration, the trade makes money.
• Target · $160
  Full value
  At $160 or higher on December 18, the spread is worth its full $15 width.

What can break this trade